[] Timing is crucial: High court's help must come soonest: ideally before the start of Comelec printing of ballots (scheduled January 6, 2025) or, more precisely, on or before cut-off date for the Mandaue-Cebu ballots.
[] With the yearend and New Year holidays, the Jonas Cortes camp announced it would file its petition with the SC on January 2, 2025 yet. A narrow window, indeed.
[] And there may be no repeat of Jonkie Ouano vs Jonas Cortes return bout, 18 years after Jonas clobbered Jonkie in 2007 fight over city mayorship. Cortes has been taken out virtually from the ring a few months before the 2025 match.
WHAT'S HAPPENING. Comelec's Second Division last December 18, 2024 disqualified Jonas Cabungcal Cortes, suspended-then-dismissed mayor of Mandaue City, and cancelled his COC or certificate of candidacy. A few days later, on December 27, Comelec en banc rejected Cortes' motion for reconsideration, affirming the division finding.
The first threat of Cortes COC cancellation after the October filing deadline was Comelec's announcement that it would immediately execute the Ombudsman order of dismissal from service against elective officials. It had amended its long-standing resolution that COCs will be cancelled only after the court case against the candidate becomes "final and executory."
That first threat stemmed from the Ombudsman order dismissing Cortes (and Rama) from government service and Comelec’s new policy to enforce Ombudsman orders immediately. That threat though was foiled by the SC's temporary restraining order of October 22.
This time, Comelec moved against Cortes (not yet against Rama), cancelling Jonas' COC in answer to a complaint based on his answer to a question about his disqualification case arising from the Ombudsman order. Comelec, in the division and en banc rulings, found his answer ("N/A" or not applicable) a "material misrepresentation," which was a ground for taking him off the list of candidates for the 2025 election.
IMMEDIATE EFFECT of the Comelec en banc ruling was to create an emergency situation in the Cortes camp.
Not only did the Comelec December 18 resolution made the SC's first TRO useless. It also pressed the need for the Cortes camp for secure another TRO, this time against the Comelec en banc's actual cancellation of the Cortes COC.
In plain language, Cortes is out of the May 2025 race unless the SC would restore things to the previous status ("status quo ante," when Jonas was still considered a candidate).
Cortes stuck to his defense in his statement after the latest blow, namely, that the adverse Ombudsman ruling was "still being appealed and was not yet final and executory."
WINDOW TO SURVIVAL. For Cortes, the remaining window to get out of his existential crisis is that provided by the Supreme Court. This time, his petition has to address the Comelec en banc December 27 ruling: Put it in the hands of the high court.
But Cortes can be crushed by the shortness of time. His lawyer announced they'd file a petition on January 2, 2025, the first working day of the new year. Two big problems: (a) Would Cortes' arguments overcome Comelec's finding of facts and application of the law and thus favor his side? (b) Would the SC act on it quickly enough to beat the deadline on printing of ballots?
Comelec disclosed that it would start printing on January 6, or four days after Cortes will have filed his petition against the Comelec cancellation of his COC. The start of printing though may not be a final and total cut-off. Comelec could and might extend deadline for ballots in disputed areas, such as Cebu and Mandaue, or allow changes in meritorious cases, without disrupting its schedule. After all, the entire task cannot be done in just a few print runs.
But bureaucracy can be harsh and unbending. The high court can cite -- though it doesn't have to and won't -- work load and capacity. Comelec can cite the interest of the majority and the printing capability. There's no glimmer at the tunnel end, for now.
'WA PA GYUY' SUBSTITUTION. Not only is Jonas Cortes being screwed. His party is screwed too. Neither Cortes nor his political party or group -- he reportedly listed One Cebu in his COC -- can have a substitute candidate for mayor.
At this stage until election day, the Omnibus Election Code allows a candidate to be substituted in case of death and disqualification; someone nominated by his political party or political group and bearing the same surname as that of the substituted. But a person's COC that has been "denied due course and/or cancelled" under the law is "not treated as a candidate at all." No substitute because there's no candidate in the first place, or so goes the reasoning for the policy.
In Tea vs Comelec (GR #95229 October 9, 2012), the SC ruled that a cancelled COC, which is void from the beginning, cannot give rise to a valid candidacy, and much less to valid votes. Votes cast in favor of a person with cancelled COC are deemed stray and should he get the highest numbers of votes, the candidate who got the second highest number of votes shall be considered the winner.
Legal reasoning aside, a void would be left in case Cortes' disqualification would remain. The Cortes party or group would've a slate without a candidate for mayor, not quite like a headless chicken but almost.
OUANO CLAN'S COMPLETE RETURN? With Jonas Cortes, the once-strongest contender virtually eliminated from the race, Thadeo Jovito "Jonkie" Ouano of the Ouano clan may get the mayorship and clinch wider control of Mandaue City politics. Emmarie "Lolypop" Ouano-Dizon, incumbent congresswoman, seems to be easily sailing to reelection in the city's lone congressional district, though still vulnerable to solid issues against her and her kin when the Ouanos controlled Mandaue City Hall for two decades or so (1988-1998, Alfredo Ouano; 1998-2007, Ted Ouano). "Ingko Pedong" died November 7, 2014 at 90; Ted Ouano, who also served as Provincial Board member after his stint as mayor, died on February 26, 2016 at 71.
Jonkie, son of former mayor Ted Ouano and Congresswoman Lolypop's brother, lost in his bid for mayor in 2007 against Jonas Cortes. A pity that it wouldn't be a return match in 2025 as Jonas has been taken out of the ring even before the bell could ring. Jonkie might still be facing a rival, one Jonas Cortes but she -- nicknamed Joey Cortes -- is even considered by the "real Jonas Cortes" camp as a ploy of rivals to confuse the voters.
Descriptions of the mayorship Jonkie that is most likely to win have ranged from "being given on a platter" to "modawat og limpyo" and "hayahay pa's polis." But critics of the Ouanos can only speculate or accuse with no proof. Their rivals can only suggest or hint of the likelihood that the clan has tapped their influence or connection with relatives in high places in order to assault their rivals, using the law as the "lethal weapon."
Whatever plot there is, this one in Mandaue seems to be succeeding, despite, or perhaps because of, the apparent deviousness and meanness.