A MONTH after VoxPop Davao's online survey on the 2024 Davao City mayoral race, Karlo Alexie Nograles leads with 3,300 votes, followed by former President Rodrigo Duterte with 2,700.
As of November 14, the post has garnered 6,200 reactions, with comments praising Nograles as a visionary and a fresh energy for the city, while Duterte’s supporters highlight his legacy and experience.
The survey, launched on October 10, also reflects the divided views of Dabawenyos.
Some voters like 22-year-old Adesa Khate P. Gavanez, Christian College of Southeast Asia and resident of Bago Aplaya, favor Duterte due to his past programs and efforts in improving the city. She highlighted that during Duterte's tenure, there were fewer incidents of missing persons, kidnappings, and drug-related issues.
“In my opinion, I choose Former President Duterte. He made the Philippines stronger, healthier, and more organized while he was in office. He started many programs when he was mayor in Davao and continued them as president,” Gavanez said
Reyland Alfeche, a program coordinator at Ascending Move Foundation, also expresses his support for Duterte despite the ongoing political challenges.
In an exclusive interview with VoxPop Davao on November 13, 2024, political analyst Prof. Lindsey Espino said Nograles has emerged as a strong contender to challenge the Duterte family’s political dominance in Davao.
Espino noted that while the Duterte family has long controlled the city’s politics, new political divisions, including challenges from former Duterte allies, have opened up opportunities for Nograles.
“Kaning banggaan nila karun ma-test ang demokrasya sa Davao whereby mahatagan higayon ang taga-Davao kung kinsa ilang pilion, it could be Duterte or probably Nograles (This clash will test Davao's democracy, giving the Dabawenyos the opportunity to decide who they will choose—Duterte or possibly Nograles),” he said.
In the survey, Nograles leads Duterte by just 600 votes. Espino noted that, from a political science perspective, Nograles has a genuine chance and wouldn’t run for mayor if he didn’t believe so. He also highlighted that, while Districts 1, 2, and 3 have long been controlled by the Duterte family, new political divisions are now emerging.
Espino pointed to the Al-ag family, traditionally aligned with the Dutertes, now challenging Duterte allies in the third district. In the second district, the Garcias, still a dominant political force, are now facing competition from the Duterte camp.
In the first district, the Duterte family has targeted Nograles through proxy candidates, but Nograles has withstood the challenge. Given these dynamics, Espino suggested the Nograles camp views this as an opportunity to run for Davao City’s highest office.
While recognizing Duterte’s legendary status in Davao, Espino argued that the Duterte family has vulnerabilities. Age is a key factor, with some suggesting it’s time for new leadership.
Additionally, ongoing investigations into Vice President Sara Duterte's confidential funds and former President Duterte’s alleged role in the extrajudicial killings (EJKs) are also impacting the family’s political standing.
“That will make or break them, but if they survive after 2025, they’ll still have a fighting chance,” he said.
He further noted that the Duterte family seems distracted by these investigations and will likely need political advisers to craft a strategy to balance these challenges.
Regarding the survey where Nograles is leading, Espino pointed out the digital divide. Only those with internet access and following VoxPop Davao are participating. However, he said that the outcome will depend on the actual election results.
Espino advised Dabawenyo voters to critically assess the political candidates, considering their accomplishments, societal contributions, and leadership impact.
He emphasized the importance of choosing not just a good leader, but the right one to guide the city’s growth and development.
Duterte filed his Certificate of Candidacy on October 7, alongside his son Sebastian, who is running for vice mayor.
Karlo Nograles, former Civil Service Commission chairperson, filed his candidacy for mayor on October 9. His sister, Margarita "Migs" Nograles, is running for first district representative, challenging Paolo Duterte. RGP
