THE world is set to make abundant energy by the second half of the decade as the production of batteries and solar panels surges — but there'll also be an excess of planet-warming fossil fuels, a report released Wednesday by the International Energy Agency said.
“We’re now moving at speed into the Age of Electricity,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a press statement marking the release of the annual World Energy Outlook. Energy worldwide will "increasingly be based on clean sources of electricity,” he said.
But the report also notes that the world is still way off what's needed to cap warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times — the limit set in the Paris Agreement — because emissions would decline too slowly. It expects demand for oil and gas to peak later this decade and puts the world on pace to hit 2.4 degrees (4.3 Fahrenheit) of warming.
China in particular — the world's current biggest emitter of greenhouse gases but also the main manufacturer of solar panels and batteries — is driving global energy trends, the report said.
In recent years, China has accounted for most of the growth in oil demand, but electric vehicles now make up 40% of new sales of cars there, and 20% of sales globally, putting major oil and gas producers “in a bind.”
The report indicates that China's emissions of planet-warming gases may peak by 2025, but “given the changes underway in China we think that might be a bit pessimistic,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
Hare said “there's every chance” China's emissions have already peaked in 2023, but more data is needed to be sure.
China already accounts for half the world’s electric cars on the road. By 2030, it’s projected that 70% of new car sales in China will be electric. With its massive additions of new wind and solar power, China is aligned with its target for addressing climate change.
The report outlines a future where EV adoption continues to gain momentum, potentially displacing up to 6 million barrels per day of oil demand by 2030. The agency said that based on current trends and policies and the availability of materials, EVs will reach 50% of global car sales in 2030.
The clean energy expansion, however, is happening alongside a rise in demand for energy, including power produced by burning coal, according to the Paris-based agency. "This has meant that even as we saw record growth in clean energy installations and additions, emissions kept increasing,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Electricity demand is growing even faster than expected, “driven by light industrial consumption, electric mobility, cooling, and data centers and AI,” the report said. The contours of switching heating, vehicles and some industry over to electricity, it said, are beginning to become clear.
Globally, the IEA said that the expansion of wind and solar power alongside the increasing adoption of EVs will ensure a peak in demand for coal, oil and gas within the decade, with carbon emissions also reaching their highest point and ramping downward.
As China’s rapidly switches toward batteries and renewable energy, oil companies find they can sell more of their product to India.
The IEA projects that India will add nearly two million barrels per day of oil to its demand by 2035, potentially offering a lifeline to oil producers looking to offset declining growth in other regions.
Laveesh Bhandari, president of the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Social and Economic Progress, said India's booming economic growth means it will take the energy it can get.
“While demand for EVs will rise exponentially, the growth will not be able to cover all of the additional growth in demand for vehicles," Bhandari said. "So fossil fuel-powered vehicles use will increase for some time before leveling off and falling.”
Here in the Philippines, the Department of Energy outlined the Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050, which intends to increase the share of renewable energy (RE), dubbed clean energy, to more than 50% by 2050; repurpose coal facilities; as well as add nuclear and offshore wind capacities to the power mix.
During the Power 101 session for local media held on October 14-15, 2024, an official from the DOE, reported that in 2023, 62% of power generation in gigawatt hours in the Philippines was from coal, 22% from renewable energy, 12% from natural gas, and 4% from oil-based sources.
According to the August 2023 report by the International Trade Administration, the RE sector in the Philippines is comprised of geothermal resources (14.6%/1,932 MW), solar/wind energy (1.4%; solar at 1,382 MW; wind at 443 MW), hydropower (4.1%/1,161 MW), and biomass (12.6%/759 MW).
The Philippines, being an archipelago of over 7,000 islands, having a strategic location in the Pacific Ring of Fire and exposure to the trade winds, is blessed with abundant RE resources. Thus it boasts a significant potential for harnessing RE.
The Philippine DOE has existing RE policies to encourage private domestic and foreign investment drive growth in the industry and reduce the dependence on expensive energy imports. Policies include RE portfolio standards, net metering, green energy option/auction programs, and the RE market trading system.
In November 2022, the Philippine government opened RE projects to 100% foreign ownership to allow faster entry of RE investments.
These RE opportunities in the Philippines highlight key sectors and emerging trends:
Solar Energy: The country is ramping up solar projects, including floating solar and distributed solar, to meet RE targets.
Wind Energy: Wind farms, featuring towering turbines, have been established in several wind energy sites, contributing to the country’s renewable energy capacity.
Hydropower: The country possesses considerable potential in hydropower. The National Renewable Energy Program targets the development of small to medium-sized hydropower plants, both run-of-river and reservoir-based. The hydropower sector has room for further expansion.
Geothermal Energy: The Philippines is the second-largest producer of geothermal energy in the world, next to the United States with sizable geothermal fields that have been operational for decades, providing a stable source of clean energy.
Biomass and Biofuels: Biogas facilities have been established to convert agricultural waste into energy. The production of biofuels, like biodiesel and ethanol from crops (e.g., sugarcane and coconut), offers another avenue for renewable energy development.
Emerging Trends: In recent years, the Philippines has demonstrated interest in emerging renewable energy technologies, including marine renewable energy from tidal and ocean energy. Likewise, other energy efficiency projects and energy storage ancillary services are in different stages of feasibility development, and technical and financial evaluation.
However, while the Philippines and the world indeed need clean, sustainable energy, fundamental issues, such as social, economic, and environmental impacts cannot be overlooked. These issues should be kept under close review. AP with reports from CEA
