WITH Mindanao repeatedly experiencing grid alert statuses, the Davao Consumer Movement (DCM) is questioning whether the region is again moving toward a power crisis, warning that declining reserves could become a bigger threat as electricity demand continues to rise.
In a statement furnished to VoxPop, the consumer group said the five consecutive days of Yellow Alert from August 10 to 14 should prompt the national government and power-sector regulators to accelerate efforts to secure additional generation capacity.
“Is Mindanao once again heading toward a power crisis similar to what it experienced from 2013 to 2015?” the DCM asked.
DCM also raised concerns over the possibility of prolonged rotational brownouts if electricity demand continues to outpace the addition of new generation capacity.
The Mindanao Grid was placed under Yellow Alert on five consecutive days from Aug. 10 to 14, according to the DCM. On Aug. 10, the grid also experienced a Red Alert, indicating that available supply was insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
Also on September 2, 2026, the Mindanao grid was placed under red and yellow alert after available generation fell below projected peak demand. The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) cited the unavailability of major coal-fired power plants, rising demand, and declining available generation in the region attributed to the incident.
The grid was under yellow alert from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. and from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. Further, the NGCP raised the alert to red from noon to 1 p.m., from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m., and from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m.
NGCP attributed the extended alert declarations on Sept. 2 to the unavailability of Mindanao’s large coal plants, including GNPower Kauswagan (GNPK) Units 1 and 2 and Therma South Inc. Unit 2 (TSI 2). The grid operator also cited a significant increase in the region’s demand forecast and a decrease in available generation.
The DCM said the recent alerts mark a significant deterioration from the relatively stable supply conditions Mindanao experienced after the power shortages of the 2010s.
It noted that government agencies have long projected a widening gap between electricity demand and available generation.
In 2021, the Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA) projected that the island would require about 3,500 megawatts (MW) of additional capacity by 2030, based on an expected annual demand growth of around 7 percent.
By 2024, MinDA had warned that Mindanao could face a power shortage within three to five years if additional power producers did not enter the market. The Department of Energy-Mindanao Field Office likewise said around that period that existing supply could remain adequate for only about three more years without additional generation capacity.
The issue gained renewed attention this year when MinDA and the DOE met in January to strengthen coordination on Mindanao’s future electricity requirements.
Among the issues discussed was the need for sufficient firm baseload capacity while renewable energy projects, including solar and battery energy storage systems, are developed. The anticipated expansion of mining and other energy-intensive industries was also identified as a potential driver of electricity demand.
For DCM, the latest alerts demonstrate the need to address the power supply situation before reserves become critically low.
“The recent Yellow Alert episodes should not be dismissed as isolated incidents. They should instead serve as an early warning that Mindanao’s once-comfortable power reserves are being eroded by increasing demand and the unavailability or derating of generating plants,” the group said.
The consumer group said additional generation capacity should be developed ahead of demand, noting that power projects require years to undergo planning, permitting, construction and commercial operation.
“Mindanao needs new generation capacity now — not only when the grid is already experiencing a shortage,” it said.
The DCM also pointed to Mindanao’s continuing economic expansion, saying a stable and reliable power supply will be necessary if the region is to sustain growth and accommodate new investments and industries.
The group recalled the power crisis that affected Mindanao from 2013 to 2015, when inadequate generation capacity resulted in widespread power interruptions and rotational brownouts.
Meanwhile, the September 2 alerts were eventually lifted after their scheduled periods, but these were again resumed on September 3.
The episode highlighted the continuing vulnerability of Mindanao’s power supply to plant outages and rising demand.
For the DCM, the developments reinforce its call for government and private-sector stakeholders to move faster in bringing additional generation capacity online before the region again reaches the conditions that preceded the 2013-2015 power crisis. DEF
