There were drizzles last Tuesday and Wednesday in Angeles and Mabalacat due to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Several parts of MIMAROPA and Central Visayas regions, central-western Philippines experienced heavy rain brought by the Shear line that caused widespread floods. Palawan province recorded its heaviest 24-hour rainfall also due to the Shear line. These weather conditions coincided with the confirmation of the onset of La Niña, although they may not be related.
In a report published last January 9, 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. confirmed that La Niña conditions finally showed up in the eastern Pacific Ocean in early December 2024. However, NOAA said that La Niña may not last long. It is a weak La Niña. The Pacific may return to neutral conditions in spring 2025, that is between March and May.
La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface-ocean waters along the tropical west coast of South America. La Niña is considered to be the counterpart to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is caused by a build-up of cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific, the area of the Pacific Ocean between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.
La Niña may slightly bring down average global surface temperature but will not completely offset long-term warming trends. In fact, some of the hottest years on record have coincided with La Niña, such as in 2010 and 2020.
For the Philippines, PAGASA said that there are higher chances of above-normal rainfall until March 2025, which may cause floods, flashfloods, and rain-induced landslides. This is what we are seeing now in some parts of the country. Furthermore, PAGASA said there’s an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period.
The present La Niña for this year may be short-lived, but we did experience long episodes of La Niña in the past. In 2020–2023 there was the rare occurrence of a triple-dip La Niña, a situation where the La Niña climate pattern persists for three consecutive years. According to NOAA, this occurrence was notable in that it did not conform to conventional theories on how these extended La Niña’s develop, leaving scientists searching for clues to explain what caused it.
The question is, what follows after La Niña? Will El Niño follow? According to earlier predictions of NOAA, La Niña will persist through February to April, followed by a 60% chance of neutral conditions in March to May. Neutral means that the temperatures, winds, convection (rising air), and rainfall across the tropical Pacific are near their long-term averages.
For the rest of the year, there is no forecast yet though the Columbia Climate School of the Columbia University said that La Niña is slightly possible.
